Snowfall in Australia’s Snowy Mountains Down 40%

At the 10th International Congress of Ecology in Brisbane, new research presented shows that the average snow cover at Spencers Creek, in the Snowy Mountains, has declined 30 – 40% in the past 50 years.

While this statistic presents a significant threat to the ski industry, Catherine Pickering, Associated Professor of Griffity University in Griffith’s International Center of Ecotourism Research also stresses that there is an equally great threat to the unique plant life in Australia’s Snowy Mountains. While skiers may go elsewhere in search of more well-endowed snow slopes, plants aren’t so quickly adaptable.

We are about to lose two of our rarest plant communities, right before our eyes. Some of these plants are found only on the lee side of mountain ranges, where snow lies late into the summer months, long after snow in the surrounding landscape has melted

We need to coordinate the ad hoc research that is happening on our limited snow country

-Catherine Pickering, Assoc Prof, Griffith University

For the statistically inclined,

Average snow depth at Spencers Creek, near Charlottes Pass, Kosciusko National Park, Australia

Snow depth record, Spencers Creek, near Charlottes Pass and the Perisher Blue ski resort, Kosciusko National Park, Australia.

For more information,

10th International Congress of Ecology Website

Review: Climate Change Expanding Tropics and Sub-Tropical Arid Zones, with Implications

photo: Tim via flickr

A review of peer-reviewed scientific literature done by researchers at Australia’s James Cook University reveals that in the past 25 years there’s been an expansion of the world’s tropical zones and that human activity has contributed to it:

The literature review shows that the areas which climatologists and meteorologists consider to be the tropics (which is defined differently than in geography, where it is defined as within 0 – 23.5 degrees N and S of the Equator) have expanded at minimum 300 kilometers (186 miles).

Future expansion of these zones is harder to predict, but based on what’s now known the planet could see a further spread of the tropical conditions over the next 25 years of between 222-553 kilometers (138-338 miles).

Sub-Tropical Arid Zones Push Into New Areas

The implication of this is that sub-tropical arid zones which border the tropics are being pushed into areas which previously had a more temperate climate, with more pronounced differences in seasonal temperatures and precipitation.

As these areas expand they will begin pushing into more heavily populated areas, with potentially severe impacts on society.

Such areas include heavily populated regions of southern Australia, southern Africa, the southern Europe-Mediterranean-Middle East region, the south-western United States, northern Mexico, and southern South America – all of which are predicted to experience severe drying.If the dry subtropics expand into these regions, the consequences could be devastating for water resources, natural ecosystems and agriculture, with potentially cascading environmental, social and health implications.

Tropical Diseases Spread Into New Areas

Furthermore, the expansion of tropical diseases such as dengue fever could hit areas where the diseases was previously not endemic or where epidemic levels of dengue were previously not present. Researchers said the literature showed that these areas include the southern United States, China, northern Africa in the northern hemisphere, and parts of South America, southern Africa, and most of Australia in the southern hemisphere.

Anthropogenic Causes

As to the cause of all this, the literature is less certain, though the most recent research points to anthropogenic causes. Research published earlier this year in the journalGeophysical Research Letters shows,

…that the observed widening of the tropics can only be accurately replicated by an atmospheric general circulation model that includes direct radiative effects related to human greenhouse gas emissions and stratospheric ozone depletion. Simulation models which did not include anthropogenic radiative effects showed no significant change in the width of the tropics.

Read the full report: Expansion of the Tropics: Evidence and implications (PDF)

The Copenhagen Call

At the World Business Summit on Climate Change, the latest of the climate change meetings going on in Copenhagen in the run-up to the COP15 UN Climate Change Conference, global business leaders have issued what has been dubbed as the Copenhagen Call – a six-point statement of what they believe is required to create an effective new global climate change treaty. The points are stated and elaborated below

1. Agreement on science-based greenhouse gas stabilization path with 2020 and 2050 emission reduction targets

We support the scientific evidence of the IPCC’s 4th. We are concerned that some recent scientific evidence suggests the problem may be worse than many of the IPCC estimates.

An effective global climate treaty must establish an ambitious goal and set emission targets that protect us and future generations from the risks of climate destabilization. Limiting the global average temperature increase to a maximum of 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels would entail abatement of around 17Gt versus business-as-usual by 2020.

This will require an immediate and substantial change in the current global greenhouse gases emission trend: it must peak and begin to reduce within the next decade. Longer-term targets must be informed by the evolving science, but the IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report indicates that global emissions must fall by at least half of 1990 levels by 2050.

We believe that working to reduce emissions now is less costly than delaying our efforts. There is nothing to be gained through delay. The deepest reductions should initially be made by developed economies though global emissions reduction will require all nations to play a part.

Emissions reduction at this scale will profoundly affect business, and business is already taking action to drive down greenhouse gas emissions. We are ready to make those changes and support ambitious political decisions to address the climate challenge wherever we operate. If policies are well designed and implemented, the benefits of early action will outweigh the short-term adjustment costs. This early action can only be achieved by setting an ambitious 2020 target.

2. Effective measurement, reporting and verification of emissions

Achieving and tracking greenhouse gas emissions reduction is vital to measuring convergence towards the objectives of an effective climate treaty. As businesses we can set an example by contributing to a unified, coherent and reliable measurement, reporting and verification discipline leading to mandatory reporting. Accounting for the emissions we are responsible for will provide the basis for emissions reduction beyond what may be required by regulation and allow our performance to be properly judged and rewarded by investors and the public.

3. Incentives for a dramatic increase in financing low emission technologies

To promote effective, efficient, equitable and ambitious action to address climate change the world will need to mobilize the scale of investment necessary to achieve the emissions reduction required. Properly established, an international carbon market framed around ambitious reduction targets can enable both cost-effective abatement and create the carbon price stability to drive the deployment of technologies that will deliver large-scale emissions reductions.

The first steps to establishing a global market will be to enable linkage between national and regional carbon markets. An international agreement will help secure investor confidence in the carbon market, and national actions will help generate new financial flows for climate investment.

The new climate treaty must “push” the development of new technologies through the use of public funds to leverage private finance in early stage demonstration and deployment. This will require policy measures that create clear, predictable, long-term incentives to stimulate private investment and enable the global diffusion of capital and technology.

4. Deployment of existing low emission technologies and the development of new ones

The private sector is already the source of over two-thirds of the world’s investments in clean technology innovation, and is the most effective source of know-how and technology dissemination and transfer. Many low-technologies already exist and can significantly reduce global emissions. Significant emissions reduction can be achieved through energy efficiency, much of it with positive financial returns. Standards and regulations are the best way to achieve this. A new treaty must support deployment of low-carbon solutions by encouraging incentives for public and private purchasers to choose the lowest emissions infrastructure and technologies and for investors to account for climate risk in their decisions.

Government and business must work together to ensure that all nations have equitable access to new clean energy technologies and other innovations by, among others, working with developing countries to improve the infrastructure required for effective deployment.

An effective global climate treaty must provide the means to fund research, development and the deployment of new clean energy technologies. Pricing can help “pull” these technologies through the innovation chain, generate revenue and enhance the flow of investment to developing countries. Governments should strive to end the current perverse subsidies that favour high-emissions transport and energy infrastructure and promote deforestation.

A shift to a low-carbon economy, supported by private sector participation and government, has the potential to drive the next generation of technological innovation, address the environmental and economic challenges that climate change presents, and contribute to global development.

5. Funds to make communities more resilient and able to adapt to the effects of climate change

We recognize that adaptation is as important as mitigation in an effective global climate treaty. Adaptation planning will require a holistic and long-term planning perspective, which will require different levels of activity at the international, national and local levels. Businesses will be responsible for building much of the infrastructure needed to protect us from climate impacts. An effective global climate treaty will mobilize funding that supports public private partnerships to enhance development, adaptive capacity, climate resilience and management of risk.

6. Innovative means to protect forests and balance the carbon cycle

Because a significant proportion of the CO2 reduction required by 2020 comes from the sequestration of carbon in forests and agriculture lands, an effective climate treaty must facilitate such sequestration. If emissions reductions targets are to be met, there is an immediate need to protect forests and enhance carbon sequestration. The private sector can play an important role in reducing deforestation, particularly in developing countries, through mechanisms structured to value conservation.

We believe these elements should form the core of the international climate change treaty agreed at Copenhagen. As business leaders we stand ready to innovate and operate within the framework established through that treaty and national policies.

Reducing the emissions that until now have been so linked to our economic growth and betterment will be an enormous, unprecedented global challenge but will also provide significant opportunities for sustainable growth, development and innovation. Acting together, we owe it to future generations to meet this challenge. Now is the time to create the foundations for long term, low carbon prosperity. We are willing to work with government to do so.

For more information, the Call itself, transcripts of the special address by Cate Blanchett and opening address by Ban Ki-Moon, do visit the Copenhagen Climate Council’s website.

EU Environment Ministers Hash Out Post-2012 Climate Plan

Image via: Green Roof Offsets

EU Environment Ministers met this week for the first time under new Czech leadership. The goal – to formalize more of the post-2012 climate change actions, which are due to be finalized in December at Copenhagen. On the agenda, emissions goals, a carbon market and getting developing countries on-board. Environment Minister Martin Bursik gives the meeting two thumbs up, saying “we have reached 99% of what we wanted to.”

As for carbon emissions targets (mitigation), the group agrees to reduce emissions 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. Developed countries must also make mid-term commitments and goals for emission reductions, and “developed” non-Annex I countries are encouraged to make goals that they are capable of meeting given their capacity. Developing countries are encouraged to make development plans that include low-carbon communities and lifestyles.

The group next proposes to build a “robust” cap and trade carbon market by, preferably, 2015. More-advanced developing countries will be encouraged to participate by 2020. To further encourage developing countries to participate, sector specific markets will be created so that developing nations can get involved where they can. On another note, the Council encouraged the members to look into the recycled and reused goods market, particularly the fall in demand, and see if there is a way to support this market.

The EU is the only community in the world with a binding 20% reduction target, and they plan to increase that to 30% once more groups get on board. The costs of implementing these reductions, especially among developing countries were considered. Ultimately the group felt that the current, weakened economy is actually a good “opportunity to modernize and shift our economy towards a more efficient and low-carbon one, bringing millions of new green jobs” said Bursik. :EU Environment Post-2012 Climate Change Agreement

More on Post-Kyoto Climate Change Agreements
TH Forums: Thoughts on Post-Kyoto Accord Agreements
$215 Billion Could be Raised by Rich Nations to Help Poor Combat Climate Change
Turkey Finally Gets on Board with Kyoto
Al Gore Tells Senate Committe That We Have Arrived at a Moment of Decision Regarding Climate Change

“We’re Beginning to See Hints That Ocean Circulation is Changing” – International Polar Year Director

photo: IPY

Over the past year we’ve seen increasing evidence that the effects of climate change in both the Arctic and Antarctic are occurring more quickly than predicted. As a sort year-in-review, the International Polar Year has released The State of Polar Research, 2007-2008. Here are some of IPY’s findings:

Antarctica, Greenland Melting Increases
The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass, contributing to sea level rise.Warming in Antarctica is much more widespread than was previously thought; the rate of ice loss in Greenland also appears to be increasing.

Researchers also found that in the Arctic, during the summers of 2007 and 2008, the minimum extent of year-round sea ice decreased to its lowest level since satellite records began 30 years ago. IPY expeditions recorded an unprecedented rate of sea-ice drift in the Arctic as well. Due to global warming, the types and extent of vegetation in the Arctic shifted, affecting grazing animals and hunting.

Freshening Antarctic Bottom Water
Global warming is affecting Antarctica in ways not previously identified: Above average warming is occurring in the Southern Ocean; freshening of bottom water near Antarctica, the result of increased ice melt there, could affect ocean circulation.

IPY director David Carlson was quoted by AFP as saying,

We’re beginning to get hints of change in ocean circulation, that’ll have a dramatic impact on the global climate system.

Modern Deep-Sea Octopus Ancestors Still Live in Southern Ocean
There’s some other research coming out of IPY that’s interesting: Many present deep-sea octopuses originate from common ancestor species still living in the Southern Ocean. North Atlantic storms are major sources of heat and moisture for the polar regions. The Southern Ocean has a much more colorful and diverse range of life present than previously identified, with some species migrating poleward in response to global warming.

Read the full IPY report: The State of Polar Research

Global Climate Change
It’s Official: Human Activity is Warming Both the Arctic and Antarctic
Two Trillion Tons of Land Ice Melted Since 2003
West Antarctic Glacier Disintegrating Rapidly: First Hand Account

Ocean Iron Fertilization Test in South Atlantic Given Go Ahead

Source: “Ocean Iron Fertilization Test in South Atlantic Given Go Ahead“, treehugger.com, Matthew McDermott, 6th Jan 2009

The test will be conducted off of South Georgia Island, pictured here. Photo: NASA viaWikipedia

TreeHugger has covered plans for ocean iron fertilization a number of times and the basic premise goes like this: By fertilizing parts of the ocean with iron filings you can increase the rate of photosynthesis in phytoplankton, increasing the amount of carbon dioxide which can be absorbed by the ocean. There the greenhouse gas emissions can be sequestered for long enough that global warming can be slowed.

One concern though is the effect that this will have on ocean ecosystems. Now, following a discovery by a British Royal Navy vessel off the coast of Antarctica, some of these concerns have been allayed enough for a test of the procedure near South Georgia Island:

Icebergs Release Enough Iron to Allow Larger Testing
The discovery which led up to this is that melting icebergs are already releasing large enough quantities of tiny iron particles iron into the oceans that fears about harming marine life have been reduced sufficiently to perform larger scale iron fertilization tests.  

Prof Rob Raiswell of Leeds University, who is lead researcher on the project described the discovery by saying, “The Earth itself seems to want to save us.”

(Personally, I don’t think the planet, though undoubtedly self-regulating, gives a hoot about saving humanity specifically…but it is interesting that it may be that as more icebergs break free more iron particles are released into the ocean naturally, potentially increasing algae growth.)

Algae Needs to Sink Thousands of Feet for Procedure to Work
The new test will consist of several tons of iron sulphate being dumped in the ocean to create an artificial algae bloom. The researchers will then determine how much algae sinks to sufficient depth (a couple miles is needed) that the absorbed carbon can be trapped for at least a couple hundred years. If the algae doesn’t sink far enough will just release the absorbed carbon back into the atmosphere.

via: Cleantech and Daily Mail

Geo-Engineering
German Scientist Outlines Massive Iron Fertilization Plan to Save the Antarctic
What Would Be the Side Effects of Iron Fertilization
International Team of Scientists to Test South Atlantic Carbon Sink in 2009

Sea Level Rise Predictions Too Low, No Abrupt Release of Methane: US Climate Change Science Program

Source: “Sea Level Rise Predictions Too Low, No Abrupt Release of Methane: US Climate Change Science Program“, treehugger.com. Science & Technology, Matthew McDermott, 22nd Dec 2008

image: NASA via Space and Astronautics News

Will abrupt climate change happen in the 21st century? The US Climate Change Science Program certainly considers that a possibility and has released a new report, appropriately titled Abrupt Climate Change, detailing its findings.

Defining ‘abrupt’ climate change as those which “can occur over decades or less, persist for decades or more, and cause substantially disruptions to human and natural systems,” the report addresses four major questions (the possibility of abrupt changes in sea level, in land hydrology, in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and in atmospheric methane) and comes to the following conclusions:

IPCC Sea Level Rise Predictions Very Likely Too Low
While the report says rapid and sustained arctic ice loss is likely in the 21st century, current models don’t capture the recent rapid changes seen in Greenland and Antarctica. When these changes are included in climate change models it “will likely lead to sea-level projections for the end of the 21st century that substantially exceed the projections” presented in the latest IPCC report.

Extended Drought Likely in US Southwest
Although the report concludes that “there is no clear evidence to date of human-induced global climate change on North American precipitation amounts,” it also says that subtropical aridity predicted in climate models is likely to intensify and extend into the US Southwest “potentially increasing the likelihood of severe and persistent drought there in the future.” This drying may have already begun but cannot be definitively identified because of “considerable natural variability” of the precipitation patterns in the region.

Ocean Circulation Current Likely to Decrease, Unlikely to Collapse
In case you’ve forgotten parts of An Inconvenient Truth, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is the feature of the ocean which moves warm, salty water northward in the the upper layers of the Atlantic Ocean and colder water southward in deeper parts of the Ocean.

The USGS concludes that it’s very likely that we will witness a 25-30% decrease in strength of this circulation, but it is very unlikely that the AMOC will become severely weakened of collapse by the end of the 21st century, or collapse because of global warming beyond that time period.

Methane Release Will Accelerate Climate Change, Abrupt Release Very Unlikely
In regards to abrupt release of methane into the atmosphere due to global warming, the report concludes that this appears to be very unlikely, but it is also very likely that methane emissions will increase and that this will accelerate global climate change. A doubling of methane emissions in northern high latitudes “could be realized fairly easily.”

Read the full report: Abrupt Climate Change

Global Climate Change
Permafrost Holds Twice as Much GHGs as Previously Thought
Are We Moving Into Another Era of ‘Abrupt’ Climate Change
Change Coming to Water Politics: Twelve US States Face Extended Drought Conditions
Sea Levels Still Will Rise Because of Global Warming: Just Not as Much as We Thought

Obama Nominates 2 Leading Global Warming Specialists for Key Science Posts in his Administration

 

Harvard physicist John Holdren will be Mr Obama’s scientific adviser while marine biologist Jane Lubchenco will head the US oceanic research body.

Both have advocated greater government action on climate change.

Their appointments have been seen as a sign of Mr Obama’s commitment to tackling environmental issues.

In his weekly address, Mr Obama said that “today, more than ever before, science holds the key to our survival as a planet and our security and prosperity as a nation”.

He said it was “time we once again put science at the top of our agenda” and that he was confident that the US could “lead the world into a new future of peace and prosperity”.

‘Respectful’

Mr Holdren was described by Mr Obama as “one of the most passionate and persistent voices of our time about the growing threat of climate change”.

 

Ms Lubchenco has criticised the Bush administration’s scientific policies

Mr Holdren will become director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and the co-chair of the Council of Advisers on Science and Technology.

He will share the latter post with Nobel Prize-winning scientist Harold Varmus and Eric Lander, a specialist in human genome research.

Mr Lander’s appointment has been seen as an indication of the importance of genetic research to the Obama administration.

Meanwhile, Ms Lubchenco will direct the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) which monitors global weather patterns and ocean currents.

She had criticised the Bush administration earlier this year for not being “respectful” of science.

“I am very much looking forward to a new administration that does respect scientific information and that considers it very seriously in making environmental policies,” she said.

Mr Obama, who takes office on 20 January, has now filled all the posts in the cabinet. However all nominees must still be vetted and approved by the Senate.

Scotland Crafts Own World-Beating Climate Bill

Source:”Scotland Crafts Own World-Beating Climate Bill“, treehugger.com, Business & Politics, Jeremy Elton Jacquot, 6th Dec 2008

 

Image from amandabhslater

If you liked Obama’s proposed climate agenda, then you’ll love Scotland’s. Not only would it require an 80 percent cut in carbon dioxide emissions below 1990 levels by mid-century, it would also require equivalent reductions from the five other major greenhouse gases. Emission levels would have to be reduced 50 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. Unlike most other international variants, it would target shipping and aviation emissions as well, reports the BBC.

Image from robertpogorzelski  

Other goodies the bill includes are measures on recycling and packaging, waste reduction, energy efficiency and renewable energy for the forestry sector. In case retailers are unwilling to charge customers for the use of plastic bags, the bill also authorizes government ministers to make them do so as a “last resort”. (Several retailers have already begun charging for their use.)

A Committee on Climate Change, or other advisory body, would be established by the government to provide recommendations and guidance on its implementation. If passed by the Parliament, the bill would give the country one of the most forward-looking climate change portfolios in the world. Stewart Stevenson, the Climate Change Minister (don’t you love the sound of that?), hopes that developing a range of short, medium and long-term measures will help guarantee the bill’s success.

Scotland has been on a roll of late in the climate change/renewable energy arena, committing to building one of Europe’s largest onshore wind farms (Romania took the cake in that category) and one of its largest biomass plants while also launching theworld’s largest prize for marine renewable energy. Oh, and it doesn’t hurt that Edinburgh remains one of Northern Europe’s most sustainable cities (though it’s a shame the government caved on Donald Trump’s proposed golf course project).

President-elect Obama could certainly do worse than consult with the Scottish government before crafting what many hope will be his own world-beating climate bill.

More about Scotland
Europe’s Largest Single Onshore Windfarm to be Built in Scotland
U.K. Set to Build Largest Biomass Plant in Scotland

Major Shifts in North Atlantic Ecosystems Driven by ‘Unprecedented’ Climate Change in Last Half-Century

Source: “Major Shifts in North Atlantic Ecosystems Driven by ‘Unprecedented’ Climate Change in Last Half-Century“, Treehugger.com, Science & Technology, Jeremy Elton Jacquot, 8th Nov 2008

The last half-century has witnessed the most dramatic climate-induced ecosystem-level shifts since the advent of human civilization, almost 5,000 years ago, posits a new study published in the November issue ofEcology. Charles Greene, its lead author and an oceanographer at Cornell University, says that current and projected rates of global warming are “unprecedented” in human history and that we could very well see very rapid periods of intense warming in the near future — rivaling the episodes of rapid cooling, during which temperatures dropped by up to 18°F (10°C) over a period of years to decades. (These drastic shifts, or “abrupt” climate changes, could be precipitated by tipping points, such as the mass release of methane from thawing permafrost regions, according to some researchers.)

Large slugs of cold Arctic water drove the shifts
The release of large amounts of cold, low-salinity water into the North Atlantic from melting Arctic ice sheets and glaciers may have caused the most dramatic changes, Greene believes. One example is the introduction of a microscopic algal species from the Pacific Ocean (which has not been seen in the North Atlantic for more than 800,000 years); though it only crossed over the Arctic Ocean a little over a decade ago, it has already spread throughout the North Atlantic region. (Algae are notorious invasive species, and this is probably one of many similar examples.)

Greene and his colleagues did discover that their findings ran counter to many previously widely accepted assumptions. For instance, ecologists had assumed that most species would move northward to seek refuge in cooler areas as the climate warmed; instead, as the colder Arctic waters flowed south all the way to North Carolina, they observed that many northern species actually moved southward.

Ecosystem changes created new “winners” and “losers”
The presence of cooler waters also extended the growth periods of phytoplankton (cooler waters are typically rich in nutrients), which could sometimes alter trophic level dynamics (resulting in new “losers” and “winners”) by introducing a more durable food source. Atlantic cod stocks, which had already been overfished, may have failed to recover in part because of the introduction of colder Arctic waters, which inhibited their growth and reproduction cycles. That, coupled with the arrival of more resilient crustacean species, like the snow crab and shrimp, likely did them in, Greene says.

Is this only the beginning?
Reading this study, I couldn’t help but think of the larger potential threat posed by the mass melting of ice sheets and glaciers in Greenland and the Arctic Ocean: namely, the shutdown of the ocean conveyor belt (which could effectively precipitate another ice age). While it is certainly premature to consider this a possibility — most scientists seem to think it is unlikely to happen — Greene’s study, and others in the same mold, make me worry about all of the climate’s intangibles.

Via: ScienceDaily: ‘Unprecedented’ Warming Drives Dramatic Ecosystem Shifts In North Atlantic, Study Finds

More about climate change
Rising Seas and Powerful Storms Threaten Global Security
Really Abrupt Climate Change Really Happened
Arctic Climate Tipping Point Happening Now! Sea Ice in Its “Death Spiral” Scientist Claims